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When "Probable" Means "True": How LLMs Struggle with Theory of Mind
We use vague words every day. When you tell a friend, “It is likely to rain tomorrow,” or “It is doubtful I’ll make the party,” you aren’t outputting a precise mathematical calculation. You are expressing a fuzzy degree of belief. Remarkably, despite the lack of precision, humans are generally on the same page. We instinctively know that “likely” represents a higher probability than “possible,” but a lower probability than “almost certain.” ...
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